Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3771 · PVD → ORD
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.