Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3779 · PIA → ORD
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 7:16 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PIA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.96 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.