MQ 3788 · DFW → RAP

departs 10:50 AM CT · arrives 12:17 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RAP?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
40%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.74 in

RAP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3788 · DFW → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?