MQ 3789 · DFW → AMA

departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 6:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AMA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

AMA (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,180 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3789 · DFW → AMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMA?