Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3793 · SEA → PHX
departs 11:07 AM PT · arrives 2:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 9/30 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.