MQ 3804 · MHK → DFW

departs 5:58 AM CT · arrives 7:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
30%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MHK that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MHK are usually not late

Weather at each end

MHK (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.94 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3804 · MHK → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?