MQ 3816 · DFW → HRL

departs 5:59 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to HRL?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
35%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ HRL usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.19 in

HRL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3816 · DFW → HRL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HRL?