MQ 3820 · DFW → FSD

departs 3:06 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

FSD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3820 · DFW → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?