Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3830 · TUL → DFW
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 30%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
43%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.13 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.