Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3843 · XNA → DFW
departs 8:22 PM CT · arrives 9:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±2 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.