Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3848 · XNA → ORD
departs 2:11 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 22%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
XNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.