MQ 3859 · DFW → FSM

departs 3:45 PM CT · arrives 5:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSM?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at FSM that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ FSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.90 in

FSM (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,433 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.83 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3859 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSM?