Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3874 · PHX → ELP
departs 9:45 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.