MQ 3879 · PHX → ABQ

departs 12:18 PM MT · arrives 2:37 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Arrivals into ABQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ABQ (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3879 · PHX → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?