Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3883
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3883 · DFW → MOB
departs 5:21 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 16%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MOB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to MOB?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MOB usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
MOB (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.