MQ 3890 · ORD → BDL

departs 2:37 PM CT · arrives 5:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ BDL usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

BDL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3890 · ORD → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?