Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3896 · ORD → MSY
departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 71% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
35%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.