MQ 3901 · ORD → CHA

departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 4:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

CHA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3901 · ORD → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?