MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB

departs 8:14 AM CT · arrives 9:17 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRB?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at GRB that day

↓ Arrivals into GRB at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

GRB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRB?