MQ 3923 · MSN → ORD

departs 9:42 AM CT · arrives 10:43 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ 9am departures from MSN are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.13 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3923 · MSN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?