MQ 3947 · ORD → DTW

departs 5:04 PM CT · arrives 7:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

85% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
14%
15–30 min late
48%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3947 · ORD → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?