MQ 3953 · ORD → MSN

departs 5:25 PM CT · arrives 6:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.88 in

MSN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3953 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?