MQ 3959 · ORD → MEM

departs 8:11 AM CT · arrives 9:54 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3959 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?