Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3972 · BMI → ORD
departs 6:04 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 65% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BMI that day
↓
BMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BMI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.98 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.