MQ 3981 · DFW → ELP

departs 4:09 PM CT · arrives 5:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.94 in

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3981 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?