MQ 3984 · PHX → SBA

departs 7:34 AM MT · arrives 9:16 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SBA that day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3984 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?