Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3988
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3988 · TUL → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:17 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.