Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3992
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3992 · BUR → PHX
departs 9:16 AM PT · arrives 10:52 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BUR that day
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.