MQ 4002 · GSP → ORD

departs 1:14 PM ET · arrives 2:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at GSP that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4002 · GSP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?