MQ 4002 · ORD → GSP

departs 9:45 AM CT · arrives 12:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

↓ Arrivals into GSP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

GSP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4002 · ORD → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?