Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4005 · LCH → DFW
departs 10:18 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
23%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
↓
10am departures from LCH are usually not late
Weather at each end
LCH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.09 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.