MQ 4016 · DFW → ILM

departs 12:13 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi forecast at ILM that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.11 in

ILM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4016 · DFW → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?