MQ 4016 · ILM → DFW

departs 4:34 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at ILM that day

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4016 · ILM → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?