MQ 4030 · SBA → PHX

departs 9:46 AM PT · arrives 11:26 AM MT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SBA that day

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4030 · SBA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?