MQ 4038 · ORD → MSN

departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 3:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

MSN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4038 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?