MQ 4039 · DFW → SAT

departs 9:53 AM CT · arrives 11:06 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

85% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
37%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.20 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,567 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip6.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4039 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?