Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4041
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4041 · CMH → ORD
departs 6:49 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.91 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.