MQ 4042 · ORD → OMA

departs 8:06 AM CT · arrives 9:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

OMA (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip2.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4042 · ORD → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?