MQ 4043 · ICT → ORD

departs 6:46 AM CT · arrives 8:38 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±9 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at ICT that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ICT are usually not late

Weather at each end

ICT (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.30 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4043 · ICT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?