MQ 4044 · DFW → PIA

departs 9:56 AM CT · arrives 11:58 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PIA?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at PIA that day

↓ PIA usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.05 in

PIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.79 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4044 · DFW → PIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIA?