MQ 4051 · SDF → DFW

departs 11:48 AM ET · arrives 1:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

85% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
21%
Cancelled
37%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip2.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4051 · SDF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?