Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4062
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4062 · LIT → ORD
departs 7:35 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 28%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 71% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
35%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.