MQ 4068 · BUF → BOS

departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 6:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4068 · BUF → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?