Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4070
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4070 · RAP → PHX
departs 11:44 AM MT · arrives 1:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.