Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4091 · PHX → FAT
departs 2:24 PM MT · arrives 4:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.