MQ 4097 · PHX → EUG

departs 10:25 AM MT · arrives 1:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EUG?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EUG

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EUG (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4097 · PHX → EUG

Odds over time

How late will it get to EUG?