MQ 4100 · ORD → ABE

departs 1:28 PM CT · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ABE more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABE?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABE

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.91 in

ABE (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4100 · ORD → ABE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABE?