Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4101
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4101 · DFW → XNA
departs 7:57 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 12%
Fri 10/9 15%
Sat 10/10 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±1 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.