MQ 4118 · ORD → GSO

departs 3:25 PM CT · arrives 6:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into GSO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO

↓ GSO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

GSO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4118 · ORD → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?