Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4134
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4134 · SYR → ORD
departs 7:30 AM ET · arrives 8:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SYR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.